It’s Wednesday, November 20th. Welcome back to the Predictive Hospitality Newsletter, where we cover news, information, and events at the intersection of AI and hospitality.
Quick reintroduction for our new subscribers..I'm the marketing manager at Aidaptive - writing to you from Philadelphia, PA. Also featured is Pepper (+ her Halloween costume). My inbox is always open for feedback - please don't hesitate to reply with suggestions of what you want to read!
On another note, will anyone be at DARM in a few weeks? Some of the Aidaptive team will be there and it would be great to connect live with some readers.
In this edition we have the latest industry performance, AI updates for travel, and 2025 trends.
Let's get to it! Shall we?
ICYMI - our webinar with Beyond was live yesterday! It was a great session with practical AI tools/tips and expert industry insights. Check out the replay below.
AirDNA's U.S. report for October found resurgent demand, pacing toward year-end occupancy levels that should surpass 2023. October also saw the second slowest month of supply growth since the pandemic, only behind September.
The Highlights:
RevPAR increased +8.5% YoY to $153.97.
Available listings were 1.71 million, up 4.4% YoY.
Total demand (nights) rose +7.5% YoY.
Occupancy was +2.9% higher YoY, at 53.2%.
ADR increased +5.6% YoY, to $289.55.
Nights booked increased by +2.9% YoY.
December demand is pacing at +11.0%. With thanksgiving a week later than last year, some demand from holiday travel may be extended into December's figures rather than November's.
2024 slowing supply growth has been driven by large declines in new listings.
RevPAR decreased -3.5% YoY, entirely due to occupancy down 2.3 ppts with flat ADR.
RevPAR had shown healthy gains for the previous four weeks, but was impacted by the U.S. elections. Monday and Tuesday of the week resulted in RevPAR declines of -13.3% and -13.7% respectively.
This current week was projected to produce positive RevPAR numbers, thanks to Thanksgiving being a week later. For reference, in 2019 when Thanksgiving was on the same day as this year, weekly RevPAR rose +29.6%.
Looking ahead, the week of Thanksgiving itself is expected to be "slow".
The U.S. Travel Association's Travel Price Index (TPI) measures the cost of travel away from home in the United States. It is based on the U.S. Department of Labor price data collected for the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). The TPI is released monthly and is directly comparable to the CPI.
The Highlights:
In general, inflation, measured by the YoY changes in CPI, rose from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October.
According to the TPI, October travel prices increased +0.3% YoY and increased +19.6% from October 2019.
Compared to September 2024, October travel prices increased +0.5%.
Lodging costs decreased -0.6% YoY.
Transportation costs dropped -6.4% YoY, with motor fuel the most significant at -12.5% YoY.
Compared to the economy overall, October inflation levels for travel related goods were slightly higher than September.
However, travel price inflation remains lower than for the overall U.S. economy compared to 2023, as well as compared with 2019 (prior to the pandemic).
Journeys of 50 miles or more will be made by 79.9 million people in the holiday period - an increase of 1.7 million from last year and 2 million more than in 2019.
The Highlights:
71.7 million people will travel by car, which is 1.3 million more than last year.
Gas prices are currently lower than the national average this time last year, which was $3.26/gallon.
5.84 million people plan to fly, a 9% increase from 2019, with international flight bookings up 23%.
This article explores AI as a practical tool vacation rental managers can use to boost visibility, attract guests, and drive revenue. It details several use-cases for AI tools available today - like PriceLabs, Otamiser and Aidaptive.
The Highlights:
AI for dynamic pricing: By analyzing market trends, demand, and competitor pricing, these tools adjust your rates daily or even several times a day, ensuring that your property remains competitive and highly visible.
AI for content optimization: By analyzing your listing content - descriptions, photos, reviews - to help you craft the perfect listing, these tools can increase property visibility and engagement.
AI for website personalization: By analyzing predictions for guest intent, these tools can personalize your direct booking website to show each visitor the most relevant properties or amenities based on their browsing history or past behavior. This keeps visitors engaged and boosts the chances they’ll book.
AI for guest re-engagement: By analyzing past guest booking history and preferences, these tools can select the personalized content and offers that should be included in emails to each guest. This maximizes the number of marketing emails you can send and boosts occupancy.
Last newsletter we discussed Anthropic's release of "computer use" capabilities with the Claude AI model. Now, OpenAI reported their plans to launch a similar autonomous AI agent that can control computers and perform tasks independently, code-named “Operator.” For travel, these tools could bridge the gap between trip inspiration or planning and actually booking flights or accommodations.
The Highlights:
OpenAI plans to release Operator as a research preview through its developer API in January.
The initial focus appears to be on a tool that can conduct tasks within web browsers.
Google is reportedly preparing its own version, "Jarvis" for a December release, offering capabilities like research assistance and flight booking.
This all signals a pivotal shift toward AI systems that can actively engage with computer interfaces rather than just process text and images - agentic AI.
Reiterating the impact for travel, these models will be able to actually make bookings on behalf of people, with the potential to drastically change the way the standard booking journey.
User adoption of AI travel technology is promising and indicates new traveler preferences. A report by SiteMinder collected responses from 12,000 travelers across 14 markets across the globe including the United States, Spain, China, Australia and Thailand.
The Highlights:
78% of travelers want to use AI in their accommodation journey - during planning, booking and throughout their stays in 2025.
Openness to the adoption of AI varies by region - 98% of travelers in China, 94% in India, 91% in Mexico, 62% in Canada and Australia, 63% in Germany and the UK, and 69% in the US.
According to the report, data-driven insights have become critical for travel providers to anticipate guest needs and deliver the stay they envision.
The holding company for Booking.com, Priceline, Kayak, Agoda, and OpenTable now has various consumer or internal tools powered by generative AI. President and CEO, Glenn Fogel acknowledged there is much more to learn about consumers and how they ultimately want to interact with this new technology. But, in time he expects benefits in travel and partner acquisition, customer retention satisfaction, operational efficiency, and a deceleration of fixed expense growth.
The Highlights:
Booking.com released the first version of its AI trip planner in June 2023. A recent update allows users to ask the chatbot property-specific questions. Meanwhile, the property search results page got a tool that allows users to automatically check amenity filters using natural language, meant to remove the need for manual filtering.
Priceline was the first travel company to release a voicebot, Penny, based on the newest voice tech from OpenAI in October. Fogel's goal is to enhance the technology so Penny will be able to anticipate needs based on preferences and past interaction and then respond in a real-time voice.
At Agoda, genAI has been implemented for +120 uses across customer service, software development, content generation, product, finance and human resources at Agoda.
OpenTable, the restaurant reservation app, added an AI voicebot meant to help client restaurants answer their phones in September.
Kayak launched Ask Kayak in March, an AI trip planning tool that the company is still piloting. In addition, they launched PriceCheck, a price comparison tool where travelers upload a screenshot of a flight itinerary that Kayak then checks against many different sites to determine to find the best value. They are also testing multiple experiments for improving internal productivity.
Interviews with travel execs shed light on trends expected through 2025 - some recurring from years past and some newly emerging.
Some Highlights:
Baby Boomers: Jack Richards, president and CEO of Pleasant Holidays, says that the company is seeing big and frequent bookings coming from baby boomers. Booking.com also called out the trend in their 2025 report, calling it Spending Kids’ Inheritance (aka “SKI”) trips.
More Options for Air Travel: Adam Armstrong, CEO of Contiki, is seeing a shift in destination selection based on airfare. Airlines are bringing more capacity online, adding new routes and re-opening routes that they didn’t operate coming out of the pandemic. More routes available, more planes flying, and more competition is driving down ticket prices. Travel from eastern US cities to Europe is expected to increase.
Solo Travel: According to a Skyscanner report last month, 62% of the 2,000 American respondents surveyed in August said they plan to take between two and five solo trips within the next year.
A Phocuswire article dug into the trend "Filtered Focus," which was first highlighted in Euromonitor's 2025 consumer trends report. In short, customers are overwhelmed with the volume of information and choice available to them.
Some Highlights:
Travel booking is known to be a fragmented process. An Expedia report last year found travelers spend five hours on average consuming related content and consult 141 pages of content in the 45 days before booking a trip.
The report said consumers want to reduce the time spent searching for what they need, and brands that help them to do that and that communicate clearly with them will standout.
Euromonitor said companies can help consumers cut through the reams of information with "streamlined shopping experiences, tailored recommendations or stellar customer service."
Many travel companies, like Trip.com and HomeToGo, are using AI to produce curated lists, removing some of the heavy lifting for customers.
Others, like Klook are using AI to improve recommendations to consumers as they browse.
Natural language and visual search are also emerging as ways to help consumers make decisions. Marriott Home & Villas unveiled its AI-powered search earlier this year.
With over 90 educational sessions and keynotes, this event is designed for professional vacation rental executives, revenue managers, marketers, and tech leaders looking to the future.
Aidaptive will be there - we would love to connect with any readers!
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